The Complex Relationship Between England and Scotland: The Role of Referendums in Independence

The relationship between England and Scotland is a complex one, shaped by historical, cultural, and diplomatic factors. One of the significant moments in this relationship was the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence and its aftermath. This article will explore the historical context, the reasons behind the referendum, and the impact of the Brexit vote on Scottish aspirations for independence.

Historical Overview and Roman Influence

Historically, the relationship between England and Scotland can be traced back to the ancient Romans, who built a defensive wall along the boundary between the two regions. Though the Romans built the wall in the wrong place and thought they were separating Milton Keynes from all the roundabouts, the reality is that Scotland and England remain united under the broader title of the United Kingdom.

The name itself reveals the nature of their union. The clue is in the term 'United Kingdom,' indicating a shared governing body despite the distinct national identities of Scotland and England.

The 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum: A Narrow Victory

The 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum saw a close vote, with 55% of Scottish voters rejecting independence and 45% supporting it. While the overall result was a clear victory for the 'No' campaign, the margin was relatively small, which raises questions about how the situation might have been different if the possibility of holding a second referendum had been considered.

The Impact of Brexit and Material Change of Circumstances

One of the most significant political events affecting the relationship between Scotland and England was the Brexit referendum of 2016. In this referendum, the United Kingdom as a whole voted to leave the European Union (EU), while Scotland chose to remain within the EU. This created a 'material change of circumstances' that significantly altered the landscape of the Scottish independence debate.

Before the 2014 referendum, British Prime Minister David Cameron made a whistle-stop tour of EU countries to ensure that if Scotland left the UK, it would also be excluded from the EU. This exclusion would be a 'long and slow process' to rejoin. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy famously quipped that Scotland would be "at the back of the queue behind Turkey." These comments shifted the political narrative for many Scottish voters, as the prospect of a long and difficult path to remaining in the EU became a significant factor in the decision to retain the union.

Many in the 'Yes' campaign failed to provide clear answers to fundamental logistical questions, such as how Scotland would manage to stay within the EU if it were no longer part of the UK. The lack of a coherent and convincing plan contributed to the close margin in the 2014 referendum.

Opportunities Lost and the Need for a Flash Referendum

After the Brexit result, many pundits and politicians argued that Scotland should have held a second referendum to capitalize on the opportunity to explore independence once again. However, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon did not act quickly enough, which led to missed opportunities for a decisive 'Yes' victory.

Had a 'Flash Ref' been held immediately after the 2016 Brexit referendum, it's possible that the additional support from the EU would have tipped the balance in favor of independence. However, Sturgeon's decision-making during this period was criticized for a 'rabbit in the headlight' response, which prevented the Scottish government from fully leveraging the situation.

The Economic Factors Crystallize the Union

Underlying the political and emotional debate is the economic reality of Scotland's relationship with England. Scotland, with its rich natural resources and strong industries, contributes significantly to the UK's economy. The economic benefits of remaining part of the United Kingdom are substantial, which explains why England is keen to retain Scotland's financial contributions. Scotland's financial contributions to the UK are critical, and losing them would have a detrimental impact on the UK's economic stability.

In conclusion, the complex relationship between England and Scotland is deeply rooted in historical, cultural, and economic factors. The 2014 and 2016 referendums represent significant turning points in this relationship, highlighting the ongoing debates and the practical challenges of Scottish independence. The impact of Brexit and the 'material change of circumstances' significantly influenced the public sentiment and political landscape, with much at stake for both nations.